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The Winners and Losers of the 2018 Italian General Election

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By Giulia Monteleone

The land of political uncertainty – once again. The 2018 Italian general election confirms the failure of traditional parties to address voters’ concerns (Credit Image: Camera dei deputati)

On the 4th of March, Italians made their way to the polling stations to choose their next government, knowing that the results would most likely confirm the polls’ predictions of a hung parliament.

A turnout of 73.66% is surprising, as the election took place in times of high disillusionment with the political establishment and slight economic growth. The runners of this general election were the following: the centre-left coalition led by Renzi’s Democratic Party; the centre-right coalition formed by Berlusconi’ s Forza Italia, Matteo Salvini’s League and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy; and single runners such as Five Stars Movement (M5S) and Free and Equals. This article will analyse the winners and losers of the election.

 

The new electoral law

A new electoral law was passed last September – the so-called ‘Rosatellum” (after the MP Ettore Rosato who drafted it) – to replace its predecessor, the “Porcellum”, declared unconstitutional by the Italian Highest Court in early 2014. The new law consists of a parallel voting system, whereby 61% of the seats are allocated through a proportional method, and the remaining ones are assigned on a first-past-the-post basis. According to Professor Stefano Vassallo, the Rosatellum requires parties to win at least 38-39% of total votes in order to ensure a working majority. However, due to the fragmented nature of the Italian party system, the likelihood of any party achieving that result appeared quite dim. As such, parties running in coalitions appeared to be favoured over single runners. It is no coincidence, in fact, that the Rosatellum is also the product of a political agreement between the Democratic Party and its right-wing counterparts to offset the M5S. One of the Movement’s pillars, in fact, consists in the refusal to align with any other party. This is in line with their utter disdain toward political elites and their will to fundamentally break away from those ‘corrupt politicians who value the financial benefits entailed with their roles over the public good’.

 

The results

The election results confirmed fears of a hung parliament. In the Lower House, 32.68% of votes went to the M5S, making it Italy’s first party. Yet the centre-right coalition obtained an overall share of 37%. Neither one won the 314 seats necessary to rule. The outcome was similar in the Senate. The centre-right (37.49%) did slightly better than the M5S (32.22%), yet neither reached the 161 seats threshold required to obtain a vote of confidence.

Amidst political uncertainty - so well-rooted in Italian politics - Italians will need to rely on the neutral figure of the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, to facilitate talks amongst political forces so to give the country a government.

(Credit Image: ANSA)

 

 

(Credit Image: ANSA)

 

A split country

The elections have proven that Italy has fallen victim to populism and anti-immigrant feelings, like several other Western democracies. The results have also confirmed a country deeply divided between a developed North – the industrial powerhouse of the nation – and a traditionally underdeveloped South – victim of parochialism, cronyism and high unemployment rates. For decades, many Italians voted on the basis of the “lesser evil”. The prevailing impression being that of a lack of real political alternatives, with the same old faces filling sofas on television’s talk shows. De facto, a report by the research institute Demos & Pi showed how, in 2017, only 5% of the Italian population said to trust political parties.

Long deaf to grievances affecting a vast portion of the population, the mainstream political establishment - left a vacuum that the M5S and the far-right parties – such as “The League” (the former secessionist Northern League), and Brothers of Italy – could fill. An analysis of the Financial Times shows how Sunday’s vote appears to have been primarily driven by socio-economic factors, with provinces with “lower income per capita and higher unemployment rates” voting in block for the “grillini” (a popular moniker for M5S members).

(Credit Image: Financial Times and La Repubblica)

 

The winners

The first exit polls prefigured the bashing success of the M5S, outdoing predictions. Now, strong of this success, its leader, Luigi Di Maio, aims to be the next Prime Minister. On Monday, he stated the Movement’s intention to start negotiations to form a coalition and he declared the beginning of a new political era, the “Third Republic”.

By overcoming Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, the League managed to achieve an unforeseen result. This is even more considerable given that, in the last election, the League had merely obtained 4% of the votes. Salvini’s success – largely due to his anti-immigration stance and a rhetoric highly critical of Eurozone policies – has been hailed positively by Marine Le Pen, one of Salvini’s inspirational figures.

For the European Union, the victory of two highly euro-sceptic forces in a founding member is very worrisome, further holding back any prospect of a further political integration. A coalition government formed by these two parties cannot be ruled out. However, this option appears unlikely as of now, as both leaders desire to become the next head of government. Thus, they would hardly co-exist under the same government, also considering their diverging views on the economy and taxation (see flat tax and national citizenship income).

 

The losers

If anything, this election has confirmed the end of “Berlusconismo” in Italy. Berlusconi’s political career had already seen an end in 2011, when he was forced to resign in the midst of the sovereign debt crisis, leaving the country on the edge of bankruptcy.
It now sees its final death knell. From signing a new “contract with the Italians” on television (famously signed in 2001), to the mantra of cutting taxes and introducing a universal flat tax at 23% (effectively only cutting taxes for the richest), Berlusconi seemed like that persistent ex who wants to take a walk down memory lane.

Dulcis in fundo, the greatest single example of political suicide in Italian modern politics: the Democratic Party, and its soon-to-be former, leader Matteo Renzi. In the last European elections of May 2014, his party received a stunning victory, with 40% of the votes. At that time, Renzi was at the peak of his political career. Elected party leader in December 2013, in early 2014 he had managed to become Prime Minister. The Italian centre-left seemed to have finally found a leader which could counter its many centrifugal forces that seemed prone to infinite splits. However, Renzi’s 1000 days in power ended in resignation following a 60% “No” vote in the December 2016 constitutional referendum. Since then, Renzi – who had previously affirmed that he would take time off politics had he lost – remained victim of the same curse which cost him the victory in the referendum: the personalization of his party. After calling new party elections – and winning them again in May 2017 – the party underwent an internal split, which alienated many electors and eventually led to the formation of Free and Equals. After the mild 19% result, Renzi submitted a letter of resignation as party leader, however postponing it until a new government has been installed. In so doing, it appears evident that Renzi aims to monitor this period of intensified talks, to ensure that the Democratic Party will not join forces with either Di Maio or Salvini. With him immediately out of the picture, in fact, both options could have been possible.

 

Conclusion

Italy, once again, embarks upon a frictious period of political instability. The next crucial date will be March 23rd, when both Houses are supposed to convey for the first time and their presidents be elected (respectively, the second and third highest institutional roles in the country). On such day, perhaps an agreement will have been reached. Shouldn’t this be the case, other options may include a tentative minority government led by the M5S, an – unlikely – grand-coalition government or, as a measure of last resort, a new election.

 

Giulia is Editor and MA Representative with Strife. She is pursuing an MA in Conflict, Security and Development in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, where she completed her BA in International Relations in 2017. She works as Graduate Research Assistant in the Department of Middle Eastern Studies at KCL, researching on the Egyptian uprising and the Egyptian diaspora in the UK. She previously gained work experience in foreign affairs at governmental level and broadcasting at community media level.
Her academic interests focus on social movements and popular politics, Arab Uprisings, diaspora & migration studies. You can follow her on Twitter: @GiuliaMonteleon.

Images Sources:

Banner: http://www.camera.it/leg17/1?active_tab_27537=27548&active_slide_27561=1&active_tab_32120=32134

Images 1 & 2: http://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/politica/politica.shtml

Image 3: https://www.ft.com/content/d11902f6-2062-11e8-a895-1ba1f72c2c11 and http://www.repubblica.it/economia/2017/03/10/news/istat_occupazione_quarto_trimestre_2016-160200545/

Italy’s Referendum: Another one bites the dust?

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By: Andrea Varsori

The Italian PM Matteo Renzi submitted his resignation in the aftermath of the referendum. (Franco Origlia/Getty Images)

On 5th December 2016, Italy voted in a referendum to decide whether to accept or reject a sweeping reform of the country’s Constitution. The constitutional reform was promoted by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who had come to power in February 2014 promising to bring much-needed change to the economy and the labyrinthine political system. While earlier media polls consistently argued that rejection of the reform was a likely outcome, the final results that arrived later in the night showed an emphatic refusal that was not foreseen - nearly 60 percent of the voters chose to reject the proposed reform. As a consequence, Matteo Renzi resigned briefly after 11pm GMT.

This vote has been the latest among a spate of electoral outcomes that have reemphasized a rising tide of populism in the West. The Brexit referendum was the first of these events, with British voters leaping into the dark by choosing to leave the European Union. At the end of a deeply polarising campaign, six months after Brexit, Donald Trump won the presidential elections in the United States, propelling into the most powerful political office on the planet. The rejection of the constitutional reform in Italy could signal the fall of another domino with similar populist movements gaining more thrust in France, the Netherlands, and Germany. However, this is a simplistic reading of the facts. First, the overriding success of populism is unlikely in the Netherlands and in Germany - both countries are parliamentary democracies where right-wing populism is not only far from a majority but can be easily isolated by the rest of the political system. Second, Italy’s referendum outcome and the fall of Matteo Renzi do not yet indicate an overarching victory for populism in Italy.

First, the end of the Renzi government does not mean that elections will follow suit. In Italy, the President can decide to dissolve the Parliament only if political parties cannot agree on a substitute. The current electoral law prescribes two turns of voting, with the two biggest political forces disputing a strong majority prize at the lower house in a second turn. Recent polls have consistently shown that the Five Star Movement (5SM), Italy’s main populist formation, would currently win the second turn against the Democratic Party (DP), Renzi’s left-of-centre party. The Democratic Party, who now holds a large majority in the lower house, is unlikely to place its bets on elections after such a crushing political defeat. The odds are now in favour of a new coalition executive, likely headed by Democratic Ministers Dario Franceschini or Graziano Delrio, or a caretaker government headed by a technocrat, such as Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan.[1] The new government will likely draft a new electoral law: the existing one, in fact, only applies to the lower house, as the upper house (the Senate) has ended up with an entirely different method. Every new electoral law will significantly lower the possibilities of the Five Star Movement taking control of the government in the future.

The rush to declare an end to Renzi’s political career should also be avoided. Renzi is still one of the foremost politicians in the country, and his political proposals still retain an appeal among that 40% of ‘Yes’ voters. At present, it is not clear if Renzi’s resignation as PM will entail his resignation as party leader. The minority of the Democratic Party supported the ‘No’ at the referendum and may be willing to trigger an internal leadership contest. Most of its leaders, however, have been marked by past political defeats (against Renzi himself, in 2013); anyway, that part of the political spectrum offers little appeal to the moderates who supported Renzi at the 2014 European elections. As for the other political forces, their unity in the referendum campaign was an exception. The radical-left remain in the margins and the centre-right is divided between Forza Italia, Silvio Berlusconi’s party, who still has no viable successor and lacks long-term political strategy, and the Northern League, which struggles to be at par with other right-wing European parties, such as Marine Le Pen’s FN.

Then, there is the Five Star Movement (5SM) that was born in 2008. The 5SM has reeled from its defeat in the 2014 European elections.[2] However, it pushed forth a few young political figures - the 30-year old Luigi Di Maio as vice-president of the Lower House. Earlier last year, the 5SM won the mayoral elections in the capital city of Rome, and in Turin, Italy’s fourth-largest urban centre. Building on these successes, and despite recent scandals, the 5SM is trying to gain credibility as a national force capable of governing the country. After last night’s results, the party’s founder, Grillo announced that the Movement will soon select the names for a future cabinet, and launched an internal discussion for a government programme on energy.[3]

The 5SM will profit in the aftermath of the referendum result, but prospects of gaining more power remain unclear. Elections could be postponed to late 2018 and the problems encountered by other populist movements in the West may choke popular enthusiasm towards the 5SM. Moreover, its current venture into local governance in Rome has been plagued by a resignations and an inability to handle them, signalling problems in the management of power.[4] The referendum has highlighted constituencies in which Matteo Renzi has relatively low popularity: early analyses show the distribution of ‘No’ votes among young people (81% among 18-34 year olds), students (79%), the unemployed (64%), and the highly educated (61%).[5] The widest margins regionally have been registered in the North-East and in the South - historically difficult regions for Renzi. The 5SM is likely to exploit these constituencies; however, it is not alone in doing so, as the radical left and the Northern League will try to dent into these groups.

The international consequences of this referendum, like the potential spread of populism from Italy outwards, remain to be seen. The most probable outcome of Matteo Renzi’s resignation is the creation of a political or caretaker government, with the hope that the popularity of the 5SM and the Northern League dies down. Moreover, the main opposition to government parties is fractured and coping with problems of its own. Further, Renzi is still a figure to be reckoned with; if a provisional government is created in the next days, it is likely that he will try to come back as a leader at its end, which may coincide with the end of this Parliament (May 2018).

Economic matters will also prove more decisive: if the national banking crisis deepens as a result of political uncertainty, the whole nation will suffer, dragging down growth as a consequence. This may reflect itself on the new government and on the DP, which will most likely be part of it. If the next government tries to cope with financial woes, it will need to introduce unpopular measures, thus stoking the fire of anti-establishment anger. It is the cycle of lesser growth and political frustration that may make of this referendum the potential first domino to fall, in Italy’s spiralling into populism, instability, and polarisation.

Andrea Varsori is a PhD candidate at the Department of War Studies, King’s College London, and a Senior Editor at Strife. He holds an MA in International and Diplomatic Sciences from the University of Bologna, Italy. His research project focuses on organised violence in Southern megacities; his research interests include insurgency, urban terrorism, organised crime, and civil wars. You can follow him at @Andrea_Varsori.

Notes:

[1] Il Post, E adesso che succede?, December 5, 2016, available on http://www.ilpost.it/2016/12/05/conseguenze-sconfitta-referendum/ (retrieved December 5, 2016).

[2] In those elections, Renzi’s DP reached 40.82% of the votes, with the 5SM stopping at 21.16%. See the Ministry for Internal Affairs’s Historical Archive of Elections at http://elezionistorico.interno.it/index.php?tpel=E&dtel=25/05/2014&tpa=I&tpe=A&lev0=0&levsut0=0&es0=S&ms=S (retrieved December 5, 2016).

[3] See http://www.beppegrillo.it/2016/12/il_programma_di_governo_del_movimento_5_stelle_lenergia.html (retrieved December 6, 2016).

[4] Gavin Jones, Italy’s 5-Star aims to reform as Rome fiasco threatens its future, Reuters, September 18, 2016, available on http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-rome-5star-idUSKCN11O0KF (retrieved December 5, 2016).

[5] SkyTg24, I giovani hanno votato No, December 5, 2016, available on http://video.sky.it/news/politica/referendum-quorum-per-sky-tg24-i-giovani-hanno-vitato-no/v314289.vid (retrieved December 5, 2016); Riccardo Saporiti, Referendum: a dire no sono stati giovani, disoccupati e meno abbienti, Il Sole 24 Ore, December 5, 2016, available on http://www.infodata.ilsole24ore.com/2016/12/05/referendum-dire-no-stati-giovani-disoccupati-meno-abbienti/?refresh_ce=1 (retrieved December 5, 2016).

Image credit: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2016/12/04/nytnow/05ambriefing-europe-slide-ZKJZ/05ambriefing-europe-slide-ZKJZ-facebookJumbo.jpg