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Ethnic Federalism in Decline: Implications of Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis

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by Farley Sweatman

40th Anniversary of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in 2015
Source: Paul Kagame

Armed clashes continue across Ethiopia’s Tigray region as Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) battle fighters loyal to the Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF). Despite taking effective control of Mekelle, Tigray’s regional capital, in the initial offensive, ENDF troops now face the possibility of a protracted insurgency, with TPLF leaders vowing to fight on in the region’s mountainous interior. More concerning still is that the conflict has taken on an ethnically driven dimension with reports of ethnic profiling by Ethiopia’s federal government against the Tigrayan population. Unless quickly resolved, the crisis threatens to reverse any recent gains made by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration towards promoting a shared sense of unity and identity (or Ethiopiawinet) that transcends ethnic lines.

The ramifications of this conflict are two-fold. Internally, the sectarian aspect risks spreading ethnic tensions to other parts of Ethiopia, thereby unravelling the thin blanket of ethno-federalism that has held the country together. Externally, regional rivals Egypt and Sudan may exploit this unrest to derail the contentious Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which could escalate the violence and prompt an international crisis.

Ethiopiawinet and the beginnings of a renaissance

Ethiopia is rife with potential. While landlocked, Ethiopia has one of the largest freshwater reserves in Africa with over a dozen major rivers flowing out of its highlands. Control of these crucial water basins grants Ethiopia strategic leverage over all of its riparian neighbours. Ethiopia is also Africa’s second most populous country and is the fastest growing economy in the region, experiencing high, broad-based economic growth that has averaged 9.8 per cent annually over the last decade.

Despite these advantages, Ethiopia faces longstanding issues relating to its delicate ethnic framework. The mosaic of ethnicities comprising the Ethiopian space is a serious obstacle for any centralization effort by the central government. After the collapse of the unitary Derg regime in 1991, the victorious Ethiopian People Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) established the current ethno-federalist system, which divided the country into several regions along ethno-linguistic lines. Each of these regions has its own local government, and more importantly, its own security forces.

This new system was defined by widespread corruption, through which the TPLF held disproportionate military and political influence over the other parties in the EPRDF. The ascension of Abiy Ahmed to power in 2018 marked a drastic shift from this trend. Half Oromo and half Amhara (Ethiopia’s two largest ethnic groups), Abiy is a serious reformer who freed thousands of political prisoners, cracked down on corruption, and reached an historical agreement with Eritrea to formally end their long border conflict. Abiy also merged the disparate parties of the EPRDF into a single Prosperity Party (PP). These efforts at replacing the ethno-federalist system with a unitary state are backed by inclusive rhetoric alluding to the concept of Ethiopiawinet or “Ethiopianness” that supersedes ethnic divisions.

Sectarian undertones

The discrepancies between this promised unitary vision and its actual implementation serves as the focal point for the current Tigray conflict. Backed by a predominately Amhara political elite, Abi’s centralising reforms work to marginalise Tigray influence – politically and culturally. The ethnic asymmetry of this supposedly inclusive unitary narrative is illustrated in Abiy’s nuanced messages to the Oromos and Tigrayans. Abiy declared that the “Oromo struggle is the Ethiopian struggle,” while in Tigray he contended that “ethnic differences should be recognized and respected, however, we should not allow them to be hardened to the extent of destroying our common national story.”

Ethno-regional division of Ethiopia
Source: Peter Fitzgerald

These ethnic differences permeate the current conflict. Abiy enjoys popular Amhara support with thousands of Amhara militiamen fighting alongside federal forces in Tigray. Meanwhile, scores of Amhara civilians were massacred in Mai Kadra in western Tigray, possibly in response by the TPLF. Abiy’s offensive is largely directed against the TPLF political-military establishment, but increasingly, allegations of ethnic profiling against the Tigrayan population surface – both in Tigray and elsewhere in the country. Tigrayans in the national capital, Addis Ababa, have been harassed and those working in security or civil serves been told not to come to work.

This sectarianism has serious implications which threaten the territorial integrity of Ethiopia. If the conflict is directed against the general Tigrayan population as opposed to a defined political-military entity, there can be no immediate resolution. Failing to quickly resolve this crisis struggle may reinvigorate latent secessionist movements elsewhere in Ethiopia. The Southern Nations region of Ethiopia, for instance, is teeming with nationalist factions. Also, Tigrayan unrest may trigger ethnic Somali irridentist claims in the Ogaden region. If these groups reject Abiy’s centralization efforts, bloodshed may follow.

Regional destabiliser

There is growing concern that the conflict may destabilize the entire Horn of Africa. Thousands of Ethiopian soldiers fighting Islamist insurgencies in Somalia have reportedly been withdrawn to join to the Tigray offensive. This redeployment could create a power vacuum in Somalia to be filled by Islamist groups like al-Shabaab or the Islamic State. The violence in Tigray has already spilled into neighbouring Eritrea, which harbours a longstanding animosity towards the TPLF over its leading role in Eritrean-Ethiopian border conflict. Eritrean troops are reported to have crossed into the Tigray region following TPLF rocket strikes on the Eritrean capital of Asmara.

Eritrean involvement could potentially result in intervention from other foreign powers. Abiy is currently engaged in a public standoff with Egypt and Sudan over the GERD project which, when completed, will grant Ethiopia control of the Nile water supply. If Egypt and Sudan were to side with the TPLF, derailing the GERD, this could result in more actors becoming involved in the crisis. For example, Turkey, with its history of intervening in post-Arab Spring conflicts in Syria and Libya, may move in to balance its regional rival Egypt by supporting Ethiopia. With Turkey involved, it would potentially not be long before the Gulf states, who have vested interests in the Horn, would get dragged into the conflict.

Walking a fine line

With these internal and external variables at play, it is in the interest of Abiy and his government to seek an immediate end to the Tigray conflict – either through swift military means or international mediation. The latter seems preferable for producing a more robust and enduring peace agreement, with the eventual reintegration of Tigrayan politicians into Ethiopian politics. Abiy, however, must be careful not to make too many concessions, lest he alienate his support base and incentivise other secessionist movements in the country.

To secure its future, Ethiopia must move beyond ethnic-based politics. Lessons from Yugoslavia in 1990s have demonstrated the innate and deadly fallacies of ethnic federalism. Ethiopia’s ethnic federalist system serves to empower the dominant ethno-regional group, thereby marginalizing ethnic minorities at the local level. In creating a unitary state, Abiy must reject the populist demands of the Amhara or Oromo while working toward peaceful coexistence with the TPFL. Inclusion into the PP might prove a stretch but Abiy should at least strive for a working relationship with the TPLF that offers them political protections in a new Ethiopia.

Farley Sweatman is a Master of Global Affairs (MGA ’21) Candidate at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, University of Toronto. He has interned at the American Chamber Commerce in Morocco and is currently specializing in global capital markets and global security at the Munk School. Farley is also an active member of the Global Conversations media organization as Associate Editor and former Feature Contributor for Middle East and North African (MENA) Affairs.

Feature - Tigray: A Potential Humanitarian Crisis

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Militia from the Amhara border region with Tigray rides out to face the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Ethiopia, 9 November 2020 (Image credit: Reuters/Tiksa Negeri)

In 2018 the newly appointed Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed formally brought an end to the Ethiopia-Eritrean War. The armed conflict, fought between 1998 and 2000 following the invasion of Badme by Eritrean forces, killed around 80,000 people and resulted in nearly two decades of tension between the two countries. It was in 2019 that PM Abiy was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for bringing peace to Ethiopia. Less than a year later, in October 2020, Ethiopia faces a civil war between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Abiy’s government. Following a reported attack from Tigray regional forces, Abiy ordered a military offensive in the Tigray region on 4 November 2020. The conflict is quickly becoming a major security concern for the country and its neighbours in the Horn of Africa. As the violence increases, there are increasing signs of a potential humanitarian crisis and instability in the region. Hundreds have already been killed, both sides are claiming war crimes, and thousands of refugees are fleeing the country.

The source of the conflict

The TPLF dominated Ethiopian politics between 1991 and 2019 as part of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The EPRDF was made up of four parties each one representing each ethnic group in the country. Although all four parties were intended to have equal representation, the EPRDF was dominated by the TPLF, resulting in ethnic-based inequality and tensions. Following protests for reform, in 2019 Prime Minister Abiy merged former member parties of the EPRDF, and other ethnic parties that had been overlooked by the EPRDF, into the Prosperity Party (PP) in an attempt to have fairer representation in central government. However, the TPLF opposed the merger because they would lose their disproportionate influence, as Tigrayans only constitute six per cent of the population. The TPLF made a statement, claiming that the merging of the parties would be akin to bringing together “fire and hay”, and called for the public to oppose the reforms. Rising opposition to the government led to an increase in tensions between the TPLF and Abiy Ahmed.

In August 2020, landmark elections were meant to be held in Ethiopia; this was to be the Prosperity Party’s first electoral campaign. However, in March 2020 it was declared that all national and regional elections were to be postponed due to the coronavirus outbreak. Opposition groups questioned the decision, claiming that the prime minister was deliberately refusing to hold the elections. Tigray took the unilateral decision to hold regional elections in defiance of the governments’ demands on 8 September 2020. The Prime minister declared the election as illegal and compared them to the construction of shanties by ‘illegal dwellers.’ In October, the federal government began to withhold funds for social welfare programs in retaliation to the ‘illegal’ elections in Tigray.

(Image credit: VOA)

By November tensions between the government and the Tigray region had reached boiling point, and on 4 November Abiy ordered the military to enter the Tigray region, reportedly in response to an attack on government forces by the TPLF. Abiy warned Tigray’s leaders that there is no place for ‘criminal elements’ in Ethiopia, adding that they would ‘extract these criminal elements [from Tigray and] relaunch our country on a path to sustainable prosperity for all.’ The TPLF, however, see the use of troops as punishment for the September vote, and an act of aggression. Debretsion Gebremichael, President of the Tigray region, said: ‘what has been initiated against us is clearly a war, an invasion … this is a war we’re conducting to preserve our existence.’

The government declared a six-month state of emergency across the Tigray region on 5 November. The declaration grants the government the power to suspend political and democratic rights. It also allows for the government to impose curfews, searches without warrants, communications and transportation restrictions and the detention of any person or suspect that is taking part in illegal activities. Under these regulations, Prime Minister Abiy had cut all communication and transport links to the Tigray region.

A humanitarian disaster?

At the time of writing, Ethiopia appears to be on the brink of a potentially long and bloody civil war. The fighting is already believed to have claimed the lives of hundreds of people and fighting has spread across the region. Even with the government cutting off all media and communication with the Tigray region, there have already been reports of atrocities across the region. Amnesty International reported that a massacre occurred in Tigray on 9 November possibly killing hundreds. Amnesty International has been unable to establish who is responsible for the hacking to death of civilians on 9 November. However, witnesses claim that both have been killing civilians. If the situation worsens, there are concerns that this will result in a major humanitarian crisis. The UN has warned that “if the Tigray national (and) regional forces and Ethiopian Government forces continue down the path they are on, there is a risk this situation will spiral totally out of control”.

Not only are civilians at risk of being killed by violence, but because government forces have closed the roads to Tigray, aid agencies are struggling to reach the most vulnerable; prior to the conflict there were already 96,000 Eritrean refugees living in Tigray and 100,000 internally displaced people. Currently, the UN provides food for 600,000 people in Tigray and there have already been shortages of basic commodities such as flour. There have also been cuts to essential services such as electricity and water. If the conflict continues, the humanitarian situation in Ethiopia will continue to worsen.

In less than two weeks, the fighting in Tigray has resulted in at least 21,000 refugees fleeing the violence into Sudan. One border point, which can typically accommodate 300 refugees, is currently overwhelmed with 6,000 people. If the conflict continues, it is expected that potentially hundreds of thousands of people may flee the violence.

Prospects for de-escalation/improvement

At present, the future for Ethiopia looks bleak. The country is on the cusp of a major humanitarian crisis, akin to the suffering endured during Ethiopia’s civil war of the 1980s. The flow of refugees is putting pressure on to neighbouring countries, and the conflict seems to be worsening. On 13 November reports of troops firing into the Amhara region, an area that backs the Abiy government raises fears that the conflict could spread across more regions of the country. Today, some reports also claim that Tigrayan forces have fired into Eritrea, with the TPLF forces suggesting that Eritrean forces are supporting the Ethiopian government. Relations between the TPLF leaders and Isaias Afwerki, the ruler of Eritrea, have been poor for decades. Eritrean conscription, a call-up of retired Eritrean senior officers, and troop movements towards to border have recently worsened tensions between the TPLF and its northern neighbour. If the violence in Ethiopia cannot be abated, then the conflict has the potential to spill further into Eritrea, and potentially into powers across the Horn of Africa.

However, there are efforts that can help alleviate the humanitarian crisis. One of the main issues concerns the ability of aid to reach the most vulnerable. Every day without aid the thousands of vulnerable people in the region become more vulnerable as access to necessities is becoming increasingly harder. The UN is negotiating with both sides for humanitarian corridors to be opened, but as of yet, they are still unable to enter the region. The government must open the Tigray region to aid agencies to begin alleviating the suffering of the Ethiopian people. One of the major concerns for the UN is food insecurity in the region. Currently, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council says that it has enough resources to meet the needs of 300,000 people until January 2021, half of those that needed it before the conflict, and the Joint Emergency Operation Plan NGO says that it needs to restock in December 2020 to ensure it can continue to assist the population. Without a resupply of food, there are fears that hundreds of thousands of people will be left without access to food. The UN reports show a similar situation for medicine and emergency supplies.

The most pressing priority is bringing about a cessation of hostilities to stop the violence before the conflict escalates into a protracted civil war that could further destabilise the region. Analysts have argued that it is not too late to stop the war from spiralling out of control. Pressure must be applied to get both parties to agree to a ceasefire. The United Nations Secretary-General has called for “all stakeholders to take urgent steps to calm tensions in the country and to resolve challenges through an inclusive and peaceful dialogue”. But if more pressure is applied from parties within Ethiopia, its neighbours in the Horn of Africa, the African Union and abroad, then perhaps the parties may be brought to the negotiating table and to agree on a potential ceasefire. By stopping the fighting, opening the Tigray region, a humanitarian disaster could be averted.

The best-case scenario for Ethiopia would be for both the TPLF and the Abiy Government to agree to a ceasefire, both communication and transport links would be opened in Tigray allowing for aid to reach those who need it. The worst-case would be the escalation of violence, resulting in a catastrophic humanitarian disaster, the deaths of thousands of Ethiopians and potentially destabilise the region. The current circumstances indicate the worst-case scenario is more likely to become the reality, as Prime Minister Abiy said on 17 November that the chance for a ceasefire has expired, and the TPLF have reiterated that they will not back down. Therefore, there must be more international pressure on both parties to change their position and come to the negotiating table.

Philip Mayne is a final year PhD candidate at the University of Hull. He has a special interest in strategy, counterinsurgency, military ethics, military history, international security and relations. His thesis examines the relationship between military ethics and military effectiveness. Specifically, his work focuses on adherence to the Just War Tradition, and success in counterinsurgencies; through analysing the case studies of the Malayan Emergency, the Kenyan Emergency, the Algerian War and the Vietnam War. Philip has contributed to the Huffington Post and is an active member of the Hull University War Studies Research Group. Find him on Twitter @phil_mayne.